Some predictions for you, Gentle Readers.
The YAL-1 will get increased funding. Lots of it. Some of that funding may be in yen, given the increasing importance of the US-Japan alliance, and the airborne laser’s current limitations:
… While designed mainly for use against theatre ballistic missiles (TBMs), which are shorter ranged and move slower than ICBMs, the ABL has more recently been considered for possible use against ICBMs during their boost phase. This would be more challenging since the longer range of ICBMs would limit the ability of the ABL to reach them. By contrast theater ballistic missiles are fired from closer range, hence the ABL could more easily intercept them without overflying hostile territory. However some liquid fueled ICBMs have thinner skins than TBMs, so would be easier to damage. Also the boost phases of ICBMs are much longer, allowing more time to track and fire on them. But in general the ABL would likely be less effective against ICBMs.
A 2003 report by the American Physical Society on National Missile Defense found if the ABL achieves its design goals it could be successful against liquid fueled ICBMs at up to 600 km range. However its effective range against tougher solid fueled ICBMs would only be 300 km, likely too short to be useful in many scenarios.
If the airborne laser system can be brought online, it offers an attractive option for defense of the Japanese home islands from North Korean missiles. If North Korea decides to fire theater-grade missiles at Japan, the ABL is designed for such a threat. If North Korea opts for solid-fuel ICBMs (given their greater durability), the 300 km limit still allows a notional JASDF laser carrier to kill ICBMs launched from most of North Korea — while remaining in Japanese territorial airspace, defended by JASDF and US fighters. Target identification and acquisition would not pose a significant challenge to the Japanese regional air defense network, which already benefits from the presence of Aegis cruisers in the region which can handoff targeting information at need.
I anticipate that the Japanese will move swiftly to make that network more capable, accepting realtime satellite telemetry as well as AWACS and surface radar feeds in order to give the best possible data to the PAC-3 batteries being deployed in Okinawa… and future anti-missile systems as they become available.
I note further that given political realities in Japan and Asia, the essentially defensive nature of current ABL technology is a godsend for any Japanese government seeking a robust antimissile capacity.
A wise government would think twice about trying to scare a first world power like Japan. One might not like the results.
Of course, a wise government wouldn’t steal from it’s only viable ally and neighbor, either.
